After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, in the sanctions against Russia, the EU banned all coal imports from Russia and was unable to provide any brokerage, financing or insurance services. The ban came into effect on August 10 after a transition period after it was reached in April. Recently, the EU appears to have taken a turn on the issue of sanctions against Russian coal, saying that, according to new guidelines from the European Commission, “the movement of certain goods, especially coal and related products, should be allowed to respond to the Food and energy insecurity."
Coal, cement products and timber are mentioned in the European Commission’s revised guidelines, with regard to Russian coal and “related products,” which says, “This applies to shipments made by EU operators or through EU territory (including transit). Third-country transfers, as well as financing or financial assistance related to such transfers, but Russian coal in Europe, including inventories, remains subject to sanctions. "The EU is fully committed to avoiding the Its sanctions have undue influence on the trade of key goods in the global third world, allowing carriers to provide transportation and financial assistance, such as insurance and reinsurance, for these products. "But the approach, which was not coordinated with member states in advance, has reacted negatively from some countries, who fear it could weaken sanctions and potentially open up international trade in important Russian commodities such as coal. In Europe, according to people familiar with the matter, During the ministerial meeting, member states such as Poland and the Baltic states opposed the EU's revised sanctions proposal, asking not to publish the text until the issue was resolved.
Some people say that in the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia and Ukraine may not be the most injured, but Europe is. Many Europeans are worried about rising food and heating bills and have been bracing for what could be a long, cold winter amid the European energy crisis that has seen electricity bills soar. In order to spend the winter warmly, many residents stayed up all night queuing up to buy coal and lumber, and there were even various incidents of being deceived. According to reports, there have been many incidents of buying "fake coal" in Poland. A Polish resident ordered 30,000 tons of coal. The staff of the other party drove the coal to the downstairs and unloaded it in person. As a result, the "coal" faded after a few rains. Only to find out that it was not coal, but dyed stone. There are other "new online scams" in the name of selling cheap coal, where sellers quickly lose contact after receiving huge shipping or deposits. The local police issued a warning, advising everyone to purchase coal through formal channels.
Europe cannot simply reduce its dependence on Russian energy and needs alternatives to supplement it. Many people once believed that such alternatives would come from renewable energy sources such as wind energy and solar energy, but this is not the case. The fact is that renewable energy cannot meet the energy requirements of Europe. Demand, Europe has had to turn to coal, which it has been trying to get rid of. With winter approaching, several countries, including Germany, Austria and the Netherlands, have switched back to coal in order to conserve and store natural gas. The International Energy Agency predicts that coal use in the EU will increase by 7% this year. European thermal coal imports could hit their highest level in at least four years in 2022 and could rise further next year, according to Argus estimates.
At the annual Coaltrans conference in Bali, Rodrigo Echeverri, head of research at Noble, estimated global seaborne thermal coal supply at 983 million tonnes, below demand of 996 million tonnes. Most of this year's supply increase will come from Indonesia, Australia's output will fall due to heavy rains, and high natural gas prices will support international coal prices to some extent. But at the same time, there are also international advisory bodies that still believe that the return of coal will be short-term.
The international situation is changing rapidly. If the EU policy changes, where will the market go?
(Source: WeChat public account "Fengkuang Coal Logistics" ID: mtwl888 Author: compiled by Wei Li, a think tank today)
